WTC final scenarios – What do India, Australia, South Africa have to do to make the WTC final?

South Africa
Percent: 59.26, matches remaining: SL (1 home Test), Pak (2 home)

If South Africa beat Sri Lanka in the second Test and draw 1-1 against Pakistan, they would still finish on 61.11, but they would be assured of a place in the final as Sri Lanka would only get to 53.85 if they win both Tests against Australia. Thus, only one of Australia or India can go past South Africa in that case.

Sri Lanka
Percent: 50.00, matches remaining: SA (1 away Test), Aus (2 home)

The Durban defeat means Sri Lanka can finish with a maximum of 61.54% if they win their three remaining Tests. That would still guarantee a place in the final, as only India or Australia can finish higher. If they lose one more Test and win two, their percentage will drop to 53.85, which would then leave them depending on several other results. Currently South Africa, India, Australia, and New Zealand can go past 53.85.

New Zealand
Percent: 50.00, matches remaining: Eng (2 home)

India
Percent: 61.11, matches remaining: Aus (4 away)

However, these scenarios are based on other teams maximising their points. If that doesn’t happen, India could still make it with far fewer points. If, for example, these results happen from the key upcoming series:

Australia would finish on top at 58.77, but India’s 53.51 would still be enough for second place, ahead of South Africa (52.78), New Zealand (52.38) and Sri Lanka (51.28). Thus, where India finish up also depends on how the other results pan out.

Australia
Percent: 57.69, matches remaining: Ind (4 home Tests), SL (2 away)

The defeat in Perth means Australia have plenty to do to finish in the top two without depending on other results. Given that South Africa and Sri Lanka can both finish on more than 61%, Australia need four wins and a draw in their last six to finish ahead of Sri Lanka’s maximum of 61.54; in this case only South Africa, with a maximum of 69.44, could finish ahead of them.

If India were to win the ongoing series 3-2, Australia could still finish ahead of them, but only if they sweep the away series against Sri Lanka 2-0. In this case, Australia would finish on 60.53, marginally ahead of India’s 58.77. In that case, they would surely finish in the top two, as only South Africa could go past that.

Pakistan
Percent: 33.33, series remaining: SA (2 away), WI (2 home)

Pakistan’s home form has shown some revival, but it’s most likely too late in this cycle. If they win each of their four remaining Tests, they would finish on 52.38. In such a case, they would still need several results going their way to be in contention. If, for instance, Sri Lanka lose 0-1 in South Africa and draw 1-1 against Australia, India lose 1-2 in Australia, and New Zealand lose 1-2 versus England, then Pakistan’s 52.38 would be enough for a second place behind Australia.

England
Percent: 43.75, matches remaining: NZ (2 away)

England’s win in Christchurch has marginally improved their percentage to 43.75. It’s almost certain that it won’t be enough for qualification, though there’s a mathematical chance of finishing second on 48.86 if several other results go their way: if India get no more than 13 points from their remaining games, with the upper limits being six and 16 respectively for South Africa and Sri Lanka, then England could still finish second to Australia.

Bangladesh and West Indies are out of contention for a place in the top two.