WTC final scenarios – What do India, Australia, South Africa and Sri Lanka have to do?

South Africa
Percent: 63.33, matches remaining: Pak (2 home)

If both Tests are drawn, then South Africa would finish on 58.33. If India beat Australia 3-2 and Australia win both Tests in Sri Lanka, then both Australia (60.53) and India (58.77) can go past that mark. If South Africa were to lose the series 1-0, then they would have to hope that Australia win no more than two of their remaining five Tests, or India get no more than a win and a draw from their remaining three Tests in Australia.

Sri Lanka
Percent: 45.45, matches remaining: Aus (2 home)

Even if Sri Lanka win both Tests against Australia, they would only finish on 53.85, which would then leave them at the mercy of other results, as South Africa and one of India or Australia can go past that score – India would need a win and a draw, while Australia would need two wins. For both teams to finish below 53.85, Australia would need to win the series 2-1, with two draws. For South Africa to finish below 53.85%, they would have to lose both Tests against Pakistan.

India
Percent: 57.29, matches remaining: Aus (3 away)

To be certain of a place in the final, India need two wins and a draw from their three remaining Tests in Australia. That would take them to 60.53% and assure them of at least second place behind South Africa, as Australia can only finish on 57.02 even with a 2-0 win in Sri Lanka. If India were to win the series 3-2 they will finish on 58.77, and Australia could still finish below them if they beat Sri Lanka 1-0. If India were to lose 2-3, then they would finish on 53.51, in which case Australia, Sri Lanka and South Africa can all surpass them. For them to qualify with that score, they would need South Africa to lose both Tests against Pakistan, and hope that Australia get at least a draw in Sri Lanka.

Australia
Percent: 60.71, matches remaining: Ind (3 home Tests), SL (2 away)

Australia need two wins in their three remaining Tests against India to be assured of a place in the final. In that case (a 3-2 series win), even if they were to lose both Tests in Sri Lanka, they would finish on 55.26, higher than India’s 53.51 and Sri Lanka’s 53.85. That would secure them at least a second place, behind South Africa.

However, if they were to lose 2-3, India would climb to 58.77, in which case Australia would need to win both Tests in Sri Lanka to surpass India. Else, they would have to hope that South Africa get no more than one draw against Pakistan, which would leave them on 55.56; Australia can go past that with a win and a draw in Sri Lanka.

Pakistan
Percent: 33.33, series remaining: SA (2 away), WI (2 home)

Pakistan only have a very remote, mathematical chance, which also depends on South Africa dropping an over-rate point. Even with four wins out of four, Pakistan would finish on 52.38, marginally below South Africa’s 52.78. If South Africa were to lose a point, they would drop to 52.08. Then, with several other results going in their favour, it’s still mathematically possible for Pakistan to finish second to either Australia or India. In all likelihood, though, Pakistan are out.

New Zealand, England, Bangladesh and West Indies are out of the running for a place in the final.