India vs New Zealand 2024/25, IND vs NZ 3rd Test Match Preview

October 31, 2024

Big picture: Pride (for India) and WTC points at stake

A 2-0 series scoreline heading into the final Test is what most followers of the game would have predicted when this three-match India vs New Zealand series began 15 days back. But barely anyone would have predicted that “2” would not be against India’s name.

It has taken a series of firsts for New Zealand to find themselves in the position they are in. And now as they head to Mumbai with the series in the bag, they have the chance to do the unthinkable – inflict a series sweep over India in India. Only once have India been swept in a series of more than one Test at home – against South Africa in 1999-2000 – and never in a series of more than two Tests. Can India save themselves the blushes?

While there is pride at stake for the home team, there are also crucial WTC points up for grabs for both sides. India are still leading the WTC points table but that lead has been cut short big time with these two defeats. Another loss here and they will have plenty of catching up to do in Australia.

For New Zealand, getting to the WTC final seemed far-fetched when this series started but these two wins have brought them right back into contention. A win in Mumbai and then in the three-match series at home against England will keep them in the mix for another WTC final.

It’s taken a lot of grit, determination and long spells of brilliant cricket for New Zealand to be able to dictate terms. They cleaned up India for 46 in Bengaluru and then stuck it out in the second innings when Rishabh Pant and Sarfaraz Khan were hitting them around. The naysayers would say the conditions in Bengaluru were more suited to New Zealand than to India. So they went to Pune and beat India in conditions that were completely different.

Rarely has an overseas spinner outbowled his Indian counterparts in India. But Mitchell Santner understood the assignment from the get-go and India had no answers to his guile and dip. They also have Ajaz Patel, who is at the scene of his epic ten-wicket haul from 2021.

For India, it’s more about how to bounce back from these shock defeats and get a win under their belt ahead of the Australia tour. On paper, this is a dead rubber. In reality, it’s anything but.

Form guide

India LLWWW (last five Tests, most recent first)
New Zealand WWLLL

In the spotlight – Virat Kohli and Mitchell Santner

Virat Kohli has a problem, it’s called spin, and it’s grown in the last few years, particularly in Asia. Since the start of 2022, Kohli has played 19 Tests in which he has scored four fifties and two centuries. Of those, 12 have been in Asia, where he’s managed just one fifty and a hundred. What’s stood out in those is his fallibility against spin.

In 19 innings in Asia since January 2022, he’s fallen to spin 16 times, averaging 29.31. The corresponding number against pace is three dismissals while averaging 47.00. For someone who has that old-school long stretch forward against spinners, he has often been dismissed playing from the crease. He’s fallen to spin three out of the four innings in this series, to Glenn Phillips in Bengaluru and twice to Santner in Pune. On a Mumbai surface that is bound to turn, Kohli might need to do a bit extra to get his spin numbers on point.

It will be Mitchell Santner who will once again be tasked with not allowing Kohli and the others to get away. For someone whose Instagram bio reads “part time New Zealand cricketer, full time golfer”, it was an incredible effort to come in and pick up 13 wickets in Pune, the same number he had managed in the five Tests he had played prior stretching to June 2021. He had tweaked his side in Pune, but seems to have recovered fine. He batted and bowled in the nets two days before the Mumbai Test and will hope to have a similar impact to what he did in Pune.

Team news: Bumrah to be rested? What about Southee?

While the series already lost, there are chances India might give Jasprit Bumrah a rest before the five-match series against Australia starting next month. With practice being mandatory, everyone did everything they could at the nets the day before the Test, except Bumrah, who did not bowl. Gautam Gambhir said that Bumrah is fit and available. But with a long tour ahead, India might look to give their premier quick a break like they did earlier in the year against England in Ranchi. Will they replace him with a spinner in Kuldeep Yadav or a fast bowler in Mohammed Siraj remains to be seen. The batting unit should remain unchanged with Sarfaraz Khan holding on to his spot.

India (probable XI): 1 Yashasvi Jaiswal, 2 Rohit Sharma (capt), 3 Shubman Gill, 4 Virat Kohli, 5 Rishabh Pant (wk), 6 Sarfaraz Khan, 7 Ravindra Jadeja, 8 R Ashwin, 9 Washington Sundar, 10 Jasprit Bumrah/Kuldeep Yadav/Mohammed Siraj, 11 Akash Deep

Matt Henry looks set to return to the New Zealand XI after missing out from the Pune Test because of a glute niggle. He bowled at full tilt two days before the Test and had a fitness test on Thursday. Henry was the pick of the bowlers in Bengaluru and is likely to come in place of Tim Southee. There were more indications from practice on the eve of the game with Santner fielding to the quicks at third slip instead of Southee, who often mans that position. The rest of XI is likely to be unchanged.

New Zealand (probable XI): 1 Tom Latham (capt), 2 Devon Conway, 3 Will Young, 4 Rachin Ravindra, 5 Daryl Mitchell, 6 Tom Blundell (wk), 7 Glenn Phillips, 8 Mitchell Santner, 9 Matt Henry, 10 Ajaz Patel, 11 William O’Rourke

Pitch and conditions

The red-soil surface in Mumbai is dry and will take turn early. It is expected to crumble as the Test goes on but there should be good bounce for the fast bowlers and spinners. It is expected to be humid in Mumbai with the temperatures likely to be around the low to mid-30s on the Celsius scale.

Stats and trivia

Quotes

“I think looks a really good wicket. Obviously, it’s really difficult for anyone to judge how the wicket is going to behave unless the game starts on it and both the teams have batted on it. But I feel it looks a decent wicket and I’m sure once the guys get in, they can actually make the most of it.”
India head coach Gautam Gambhir on the Wankhede surface

“I think so, yeah. We’ll have a look obviously at the wicket but I think if you look at past tosses, I think most teams have batted first.”
Captain Tom Latham is clear on what he wants to do if New Zealand win the toss on Friday

Ashish Pant is a sub-editor with ESPNcricinfo

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