Decoding Congress’s Haryana Election Strategy

The Congress party is gearing up for the Haryana assembly elections, which will be held on October 5 with results announced on October 8. The party is finalising its candidate list and has decided not to announce a chief ministerial candidate, opting instead for a combined leadership model.

The Congress has also resumed talks with the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) regarding a potential alliance. Although the two previously contested the 2024 general elections together, early indications suggested they would go their own ways in the assembly polls.

Confident after its strong performance in the general elections, where it matched the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) with five seats each, the Congress believes it has a good chance in state elections.

In the general elections, the BJP led in 44 assembly segments, the Congress in 42, and the AAP in four. In terms of vote share, the BJP received 46%, the Congress 44%, and the AAP 4% votes.

No CM Face to Curb Factionalism

After the CEC meeting on Monday, Congress leader Ajay Singh Yadav announced that the party would not project a chief ministerial candidate for the upcoming Haryana assembly elections. The final decision on the chief ministership will be made by the high command after the elections.

AAP Rajya Sabha MP Sanjay Singh emphasised that defeating the BJP should be the priority for the INDIA bloc. He noted that the party’s National General Secretary (Organization) Sandeep Pathak would engage in talks with Congress if the proposal gained momentum. “The final decision will be made by Arvind Kejriwal,” Singh told reporters.

AAP’s Haryana chief, Sushil Gupta, stated his personal opinion that the party should not settle for four to five seats but left the final decision to Delhi Chief Minister and AAP National Convenor Kejriwal. Reports also indicate that AAP Rajya Sabha MP Raghav Chadha is involved in back-channel negotiations with Congress leadership.

Appealing To Broad Groups

Currently, former Haryana Chief Minister Bhupender Singh Hooda is leading the Congress effort, but a faction including Kumari Selja and Randeep Surjewala is reportedly unhappy with Hooda consolidating power.

Kiran Choudhury, who was part of this faction, left the party for the BJP after her daughter was denied a ticket in the Lok Sabha elections. The decision to not announce a chief ministerial candidate is seen as a move to curb factionalism and appeal to a broader electorate.

This strategy aims to avoid a Jat versus non-Jat contest. The Congress, under Hooda’s leadership, is perceived as representing Jat interests. The BJP has exploited Jat versus non-Jat dynamics to its advantage in previous polls. Congress is focusing on a coalition of Jats, Dalits, and Muslims. Dalits, who make up 20% of the population, are crucial. Kumari Selja’s role as a Dalit face and the non-announcement of a CM candidate help maintain hope within the Dalit community.

According to a CSDS post-poll study, 64% of Jats and 68% of Dalits voted for the INDIA bloc in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. The Congress hopes this decision will help retain the majority of Dalit votes.

Possible Alliance With AAP

The Congress-AAP alliance performed well in the general elections, winning five seats and securing a 48% vote share. Although AAP contested the Kurukshetra Lok Sabha seat and lost, it led in four assembly segments and garnered a 4% vote share. The AAP’s solo run could split the opposition vote and potentially benefit the BJP.

The Congress aims to avoid a repeat of the 2019 scenario when the Jannayak Janata Party (JJP), led by Dushyant Chautala, seemingly spoiled its chances. The JJP’s 10 seats, largely from Jat-dominated areas, hurt the Congress’s prospects.

Both parties initially planned to go solo, but last-minute discussions at the high command level revived talks. The AAP is reportedly demanding 10 seats, while the Congress is currently offering two to three.

The Bania community, comprising 4% of the population, Aroras/Punjabis/Khatris (7%), and Sikhs (5%) are significant demographics in Haryana. The AAP has pockets of influence among these groups in Delhi and Punjab and is expected to gain some support in Haryana as well.

In the 2024 general elections, the BJP led in 19 of 23 urban seats, while the Congress led in only four. In rural Haryana’s 60 seats, the Congress led in 34, and the BJP in 22. The AAP is believed to have considerable influence in urban areas, particularly those bordering Delhi and Punjab, where Congress’s weak seats are located.

This strategy allows Congress to focus on strengthening its position in its strong Jat-dominated region while leveraging AAP’s influence in weaker areas to maximise gains in the assembly elections.

(Amitabh Tiwari is a political strategist and commentator. In his earlier avatar, he was a corporate and investment banker.)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author