BJP, Congress-National Conference In Tight Race In J&K Election

New Delhi: Counting for the 2024 Jammu and Kashmir Assembly election – the first since Article 370 was scrapped in August 2019 and the first since 2014 – began 8 am, with postal ballots first to be opened.

In early leads, the Congress-National Conference alliance has taken a commanding lead in what was to supposed to be a tight race. At 10 am the Congress-NC is ahead in 52 seats and the BJP in 22.

The People’s Democratic Party of ex Chief Minister Mehbooba Mufti – whose party allied with the BJP after the 2014 election but fell apart by 2018 – is leading in two.

Independent candidates are in pole position in 14 seats.

Within the Congress-NC alliance, the former is leading in only eight of the 39 seats it is contesting.

The big push is from the NC, which fielded candidates for 56 seats and is now ahead in 44. The results are a big positive change for the state party, which won only 15 in the last Assembly election in J&K. 

The big negative change is for the PDP, which won 28 seats in the 2014 poll. The Congress and the BJP are on course to match, and possibly exceed, its past haul of 12 and 25 seats.

The race to control the former state’s 95 Assembly seats – of which five have been nominated by Lieutenant Governor Manoj Sinha in a controversial move – is predicted to be a close one.

Row Over 5 Nominated MLAs

Exit polls have given the Congress-NC alliance a slight edge. An aggregate of three indicates the Congress-NC will win 43 seats and the BJP 26, with the PDP winning between four and 12.

Exit polls, therefore, predict a hung Assembly; the J&K Assembly has 90 elected seats with the majority set at 46. Should exit polls – and they often get it wrong – hold true, the PDP could be the ‘kingmaker’ for the Congress-NC, but not for the BJP, which will also need support from non-aligned lawmakers.

It is with this in mind that NC leaders Farooq Abdullah and his son, Omar Abdullah, and the Congress, as well as the PDP, have criticised the Lieutenant Governor’s move to nominate five members.

READ | J&K LG’s Power To Nominate MLAs Sparks Row Before Poll Results

These five “will hold full legislative powers and privileges, like elected representatives”.

“This is an assault on democracy… and fundamental principles of the Constitution,” senior J&K Congress Ravinder Sharma said. The NC and PDP slammed the “subversion of the people’s mandate”.

The power to nominate was granted after the Delimitation Commission increased the number of seats in J&K. The five will include two women, two Kashmiri Pandits, and a displaced person from Pakistan Occupied Kashmir – to the Legislative Assembly, increasing the total number of seats to 95. 

‘Kingmaker’ PDP

Meanwhile, te PDP, at this time, has ruled out a re-run of its 2019 alliance with the BJP, insisting it will only consider a ‘secular alliance’. That has sparked talk of aligning with the Congress-NC combine.

READ | “Why Not?” Farooq Abdullah On Post-Poll Alliance, PDP Says…

Last night NC patriarch Farooq Abdullah said “why not” when asked about the PDP as an ally, although that party’s senior leader, Iltija Mufti, quickly called such speculation “unnecessary”.

Farooq Abdullah’s son, Omar Abdullah, also a former Chief Minister, was more circumspect in his response, posting on X, “They haven’t extended support… haven’t offered support… and we don’t know what the voters have decided yet. So I wish we could put a lid on all this premature speculation…”

They haven’t extended support, they haven’t offered support and we don’t know what the voters have decided yet, so I really wish we could put a lid on all this premature speculation for the next 24 hours. https://t.co/jc9KLPPVUU

— Omar Abdullah (@OmarAbdullah) October 7, 2024

Earlier Farooq Abdullah told news agency ANI, “I extend my heartfelt gratitude (to the PDP)… we will try to build this state together”, when asked about news that Ms Mufti had offered her support.

However, the senior Mr Abdullah also clarified, “I have not spoken with her.. only read it in the paper.”

Voting for this election took place over three phases – on September 18, September 25, and October 1.

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